World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Japan - Aurora (Blitz)

Aurora

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Vivekraj Kannalagan

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Keisuke Iwamura (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Shoki Imacho (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Kunihiko Date (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Francis Leocadio Legaspi (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs 尚規石坂 (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.54
R4	Blitz	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.72
R5	Blitz	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kimura Akifumi

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs ryuto nakagawa (Vynnset) - Expected: 54:46

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs タカヤスギモト (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Takaaki Sano (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R2	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Reo Hamada

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Keita Arai (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs 大輝丸山 (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Kazushi Nimiya (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.