Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at National Championship 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Arturs Melnikovs

3rd • 4-1-0

40%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matiss Maculans (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aleksandrs Vavilovs (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Miks Kļavsons (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kristaps Štils (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Aleksejs Titovs (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.53
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.57
R8	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Ivo Malcenieks

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kristaps Dubults (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniils Nikolajevs (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Romans Asachovs (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.30
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Leonids Samarins

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maksims Sokolovs (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vladimirs Titovs (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs janis bernhards (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Roberts Lipskijs

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mehdy Draoui (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.