Battle Hardened: Lyon - Verdance (Sealed)

Verdance

23 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kamil Rejman

5th • 4-0-0

25%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.9

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Simon Mercier (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Mark Henderson (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jonny G (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Pierre Canali (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.30
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Clément Maillet

10th • 4-0-0

50%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Bartosz Dominiak (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Nicolas BROSSE (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Alex Chițu (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R3	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Oliver Kuhrt

5th • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Patrik Koller (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Raymond Mauge (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs András 'Kaptain' Kovács (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Oliver Gehrig

11th • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Saguer Olivier (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Julius Otte (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Cavazzini (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.30
R2	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.91
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Rob van der Burgh

12th • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Gabe Sher (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Steve Andrew (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Clément Maillet (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Laurens Overgaauw (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Naib Mobassir

17th • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs damien herlin (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Rony MOYAL (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Adrien Krifa (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.30
R2	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Xiaoliang Yang

24th • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Noah Hicks (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Finn Baird (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Josep Giné (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Gaál Benjamin (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.91
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Gabe Sher

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Sharpes (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Adrien Krifa

36th • 2-1-1

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Adrien Bersier (Oscilio) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Laurens Overgaauw (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Dave Kerr (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Oscilio	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.18
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Draw	✗	0.43	-
R4	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Léo Toulouse

43rd • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Kurt Vooys (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Marius Beuth (Oscilio) - Expected: 62:38

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Bernardo Alves (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Noa Loisy (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Sealed	Oscilio	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Adrian Quek

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tom Escoffier (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Rony MOYAL (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Long Dao (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Julius Otte (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

George Chew

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Soubrier (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Josep Giné (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Basile Massaly (Oscilio) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.91
R4	Sealed	Oscilio	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Miroslav Košař

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Stefan Bernhardt (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs sylvain verdet (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Angus Sünner (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs damien herlin (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Sebastian Sommer

dropped • 2-2-0

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Laurens Overgaauw (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Sander Neeft (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nicolas BROSSE (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jakub Grefling (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.91
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Sergiu Morar

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Adam West (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Javier Querol (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Benoît Geay

44th • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Killian HENRY (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Angus Sünner (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Adrián Marín (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Sebok Gabor (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.91
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

damien herlin

53rd • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Angus Sünner (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Miroslav Košař (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.30
R2	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Stefan Bernhardt

54th • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Miroslav Košař (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Urfer (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Julien Erdreich (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Daniel Winning

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Josep Giné (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Vincent Fasquel (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Basile Massaly (Oscilio) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R3	Sealed	Oscilio	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Jordan Soubrier

56th • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs George Chew (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Pedro Pereira (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jean Cherie (Oscilio) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Gergely Kovacs (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Oscilio	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Guillermo Regueiro

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Coutellec (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Saguer Olivier (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.81
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Long Dao

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Adrian Quek (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthias Verbeeck

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Grefling (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs James Rank (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs András 'Kaptain' Kovács (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.81
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.