Aurora at Battle Hardened: Lyon

Aurora

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Simon Nielsen

1st • 4-0-0

100%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Maxime Deleau (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Adrián Marín (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs sylvain verdet (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Rony MOYAL (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R3	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.73
R4	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

Charles Tardif

40th • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Vlad Ciobotea (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Alexis VALENTIN (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Lorenzo Petrone (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R3	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.73
R4	Sealed	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Michaele Teppa

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jean Cherie (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Simone Rainaldi (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.73
R4	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Yassine Echafai Tripiana

31st • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Gérôme Francois (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Sharpes (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R2	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

Lorenzo Petrone

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Maxime Deleau (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Adrien Bersier (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Charles Tardif (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dayvid Kayal

55th • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Alexandre Lebec (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jonny G (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Laurens Overgaauw (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Guillaume Pastor (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Alexej Frikel

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Florian Bouteyron (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Pedro Pereira (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R2	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Stefano Berian

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Urfer (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Vlad Ciobotea (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Nicolas Pizzonero (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R2	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Bartosz Dominiak

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Clément Maillet (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Vincent Fasquel (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Tom Tydecks

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Steve Andrew (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.