Oscilio at Battle Hardened: Lyon

Oscilio

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lucas Nijssen

19th • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Nicolas BROSSE (Florian) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Declan Patrick (Florian) - Expected: 46:54

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Bocahut (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nicolas Pizzonero (Florian) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.13

Basile Massaly

41st • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Fabio Albrecht (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Gérôme Francois (Florian) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Winning (Verdance) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs George Chew (Verdance) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R3	Sealed	Verdance	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.03
R4	Sealed	Verdance	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.38

Jean Cherie

39th • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Florian) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Soubrier (Verdance) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Maxime Deleau (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Verdance	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.03
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ernesto Silva

dropped • 2-2-0

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Florian) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Sharpes (Florian) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Florian) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Florian) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Adrien Bersier

48th • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Adrien Krifa (Verdance) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Florian Bouteyron (Florian) - Expected: 46:54

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Petrone (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Urfer (Florian) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Verdance	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R3	Sealed	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Marius Beuth

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Adrián Marín (Florian) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Verdance) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Verdance	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Marcello Mutalipassi

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Tam Pham (Florian) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.