Battle Hardened: Lyon - Verdance (Draft)

Verdance

18 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Oliver Kuhrt

5th • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

4.4

Diff

R5 Draft

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Nijssen (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs Jakub Grefling (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 Draft

Round 7: Win vs Clément Maillet (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.25
R6	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.37
R7	Draft	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.75
R8	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Kamil Rejman

5th • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R5 Draft

Round 5: Win vs Lorenzo Cavazzini (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 Draft

Round 6: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Alexander Rosenberger (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.14
R6	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	Draft	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Oliver Gehrig

11th • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R5 Draft

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs Josep Giné (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.52
R6	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.83
R7	Draft	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Rob van der Burgh

12th • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

3.5

Diff

55:45

R5 Draft

Round 5: Win vs Saguer Olivier (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs Xiaoliang Yang (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.52
R6	Draft	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R7	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Naib Mobassir

17th • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

4.2

Diff

50:50

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Xiaoliang Yang (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs Kurt Vooys (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

R7 Draft

Round 7: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.83
R7	Draft	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Adrien Krifa

36th • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

3.7

Diff

55:45

R5 Draft

Round 5: Win vs Tam Pham (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 Draft

Round 6: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 Draft

Round 7: Win vs Florian Bouteyron (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.52
R6	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	2.13

Benoît Geay

44th • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

3.5

Diff

55:45

R5 Draft

Round 5: Win vs Jeremy Coutellec (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs Maxime Deleau (Unknown)

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Jean Cherie (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.52
R6	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R7	Draft	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Clément Maillet

10th • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs Bernardo Alves (Unknown)

50:50

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R7	Draft	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Xiaoliang Yang

24th • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R5 Draft

Round 5: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Draft

Round 6: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Nijssen (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R6	Draft	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Draft	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Léo Toulouse

43rd • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Unknown)

55:45

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs Simon Mercier (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.83
R7	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

damien herlin

53rd • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Florian Bouteyron (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs Javier Querol (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Jeremy Coutellec (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.83
R7	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Stefan Bernhardt

54th • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Adrien Bersier (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs Nicolas BROSSE (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Maxime Deleau (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.83
R7	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jordan Soubrier

56th • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Maxime Deleau (Unknown)

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R7	Draft	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Miroslav Košař

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R5 Draft

Round 5: Win vs Finn Baird (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 Draft

Round 6: Loss vs Sebok Gabor (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	2.28
R6	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Sergiu Morar

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R5 Draft

Round 5: Win vs Adrian Quek (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Draft

Round 6: Loss vs Saguer Olivier (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.50
R6	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Adrian Quek

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Sergiu Morar (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gabe Sher

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Sebastian Sommer

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Killian HENRY (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.