Aurora at Battle Hardened: Lyon

Aurora

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Simon Nielsen

1st • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

6.2

Diff

R5 Draft

Round 5: Win vs Clément Maillet (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R6 Draft

Round 6: Loss vs Nicolas Scandalis (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

R7 Draft

Round 7: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R8 Draft

Round 8: Win vs Kamil Rejman (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Draft	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.17
R8	Draft	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.38
R10	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.53

Yassine Echafai Tripiana

31st • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R5 Draft

Round 5: Win vs Declan Patrick (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs Angus Sünner (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.53
R6	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.84
R7	Draft	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dayvid Kayal

55th • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Unknown)

55:45

R6 Draft

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremy Coutellec (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

R7 Draft

Round 7: Win vs Jordan Soubrier (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Draft	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Charles Tardif

40th • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 Draft

Round 6: Loss vs sylvain verdet (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Kurt Vooys (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Lorenzo Petrone

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Michaele Teppa

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Rony MOYAL (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.