Oscilio at Battle Hardened: Lyon

Oscilio

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lucas Nijssen

19th • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

4.3

Diff

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs Alexandre Laloy (Unknown)

R7 Draft

Round 7: Win vs Xiaoliang Yang (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R7	Draft	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Jean Cherie

39th • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

4.3

Diff

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Alexandre Laloy (Unknown)

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs Noah Hicks (Unknown)

R7 Draft

Round 7: Win vs Benoît Geay (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R7	Draft	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Adrien Bersier

48th • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

4.0

Diff

R5 Draft

Round 5: Win vs Stefan Bernhardt (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R6 Draft

Round 6: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R7 Draft

Round 7: Win vs Simon Mercier (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R6	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Basile Massaly

41st • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Josep Giné (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R6 Draft

Round 6: Loss vs Steve Andrew (Unknown)

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R5	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.