Puffin at World Championship Qualifier 2025

Puffin

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Fernando Valenzuela

3rd • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Roberto Busnelli (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jesus Huerta (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Julio Heredia (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Sierra (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.21
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.50
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Carlos Gerardo Lopez

5th • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Moroni Hernández Monroy (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Julio Heredia (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jesus Roman (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.50
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Luis Manuel García Luna Perez

5th • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Carlos Gerardo Lopez (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Diego Alejandro Correa Miramontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Luis Angel Vazquez (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs luis alberto de la rosa muñoz (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Luis Canche (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Moroni Hernández Monroy

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Luis Angel Vazquez (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Carlos Gerardo Lopez (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs luis alberto de la rosa muñoz (Unknown)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.