World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Mexico - Gravy Bones (Sealed)

Gravy Bones

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ

1st • 4-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Emmanuel Rojas (Unknown)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Moroni Hernández Monroy (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Diego Alejandro Correa Miramontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Fernando Valenzuela (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.32
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Jesus Huerta

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs luis alberto de la rosa muñoz (Unknown)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Fernando Valenzuela (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Luis Canche (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Gaston Zagursky (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Manuel Curiel

dropped • 2-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Ernesto Manzur (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Emmanuel Rojas (Unknown)

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Moroni Hernández Monroy (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Julio Heredia (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.63
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jesus Roman (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Julio Heredia (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Gaston Zagursky (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jesus Huerta (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Luis Franco

dropped • 1-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Vigneo Guzman (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs luis alberto de la rosa muñoz (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Sierra (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ernesto Manzur (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Carlos Vazquez

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Sierra (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Gaston Zagursky (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Diego Alejandro Correa Miramontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Carlos Gerardo Lopez (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.