World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Mexico - Marlynn (Sealed)

Marlynn

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Diego Alejandro Correa Miramontes

2nd • 4-1-0

60%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Canche (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Joseph Sierra (Unknown)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.71
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ernesto Manzur

dropped • 2-1-2

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Gaston Zagursky (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Manuel Curiel (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jesus Roman (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Luis Franco (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Draw vs Vigneo Guzman (Unknown)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Draw	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.95
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Roberto Busnelli

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Fernando Valenzuela (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jesus Roman (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Angel Vazquez (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Gaston Zagursky (Unknown)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.