World Championship Qualifier 2025 Portugal Nats - Briar, Warden of Thorns (LL)

Briar, Warden of Thorns

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

José Guimarães

2nd • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Nuno Paiva (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs João Gomes (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Nuno Cameira (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Pedro Pereira (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 41:59

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Nuno Cameira (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Pedro Pereira (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Jose Alves

9th • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Paulo Resende (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Marcos Vassão (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 41:59

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Cordeiro (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Ícaro Peixoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	LL	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	LL	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.42

Nuno Paiva

10th • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs José Guimarães (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Filipe Cunha Santos (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Paulo Resende (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 47:53

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs João Gomes (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.