Calling: Memphis 2025 [B] Sealed Deck - Fang (Draft)

Fang

29 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Cedric DeRouchie

3rd • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

9.2

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Carl Meisner (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Austin Revera (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Kyle Yoder (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Noah Clark (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R15 Draft

Round 15: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R16 Draft

Round 16: Loss vs Austin Redington (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

9.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.12
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.25
R11	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.38
R12	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R13	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.91
R15	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.88
R16	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Alexander Vore

5th • 6-1-0

57%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

10.3

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Austin Redington (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R15 Draft

Round 15: Loss vs Gary Gold (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

10.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.29
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43
R11	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.57
R12	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.90
R13	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Win	✗	0.54	2.06
R14	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R15	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Alex Chițu

5th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

8.9

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Philip Huang (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs James Wray (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R15 Draft

Round 15: Loss vs Austin Redington (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

8.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43
R11	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.57
R12	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.87
R13	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.86
R14	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Win	✗	0.54	2.22
R15	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Daniel Rutkowski

5th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

8.6

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Philip Huang (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Craig Krempels (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Noah Clark (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Mark Morrison (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R15 Draft

Round 15: Loss vs Cedric DeRouchie (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

8.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.29
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43
R11	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.87
R13	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.02
R14	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R15	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bryce Stroyek

5th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

6.7

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Austin Redington (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Gui Cohen (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Gary Gold (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R15 Draft

Round 15: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.43
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.57
R12	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.71
R13	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.02
R14	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R15	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Michael Dalton

14th • 5-1-0

17%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

10.2

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Trevor Rich (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Eli Teed (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Michael Feng (Unknown)

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Nick Gabler (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

10.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.63
R10	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.85
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R13	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.36
R14	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.54

Mark Morrison

10th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

7.9

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Joshua Rath (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Gary Gold (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Gui Cohen (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Evan Bridges (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

7.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.67
R10	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.85
R11	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.36
R14	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Pat Eshghy

16th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

8.7

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs James Wray (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Philip Huang (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Elaine Cao (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Josef Mendez (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

8.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Win	✗	0.54	2.22
R13	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.36
R14	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Sam Rosenberg

31st • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

8.1

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Trey Meyers (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Emery Powell (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Austin Revera (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R12

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Majin Bae (Unknown)

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Shane Martin (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

8.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R14	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Win	✗	0.54	2.59

Nicholas Porter

12th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

6.0

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Evan Bridges (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Justin Gottlieb (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Austin Redington (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Evan Brook (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.63
R10	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.81
R11	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R14	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Win	✗	0.54	2.59

Carl Meisner

23rd • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

6.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Cedric DeRouchie (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Josef Mendez (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Trey Meyers (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Jason Watkins (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Craig Krempels (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.18
R13	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Josef Mendez

24th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

6.2

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Austin Revera (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Carl Meisner (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Emery Powell (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R12

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Michael Feng (Unknown)

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Abigail Welday (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Win	✗	0.54	2.41
R14	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alex Slotnick

26th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.8

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Omeid Vadipour (Unknown)

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Evan Brook (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Noah Clark (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Cedric DeRouchie (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Gui Cohen (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R11	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.00
R12	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R13	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Robin Avenoso

27th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

5.9

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Alex Chițu (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Craig Krempels (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R11	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R13	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R14	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.54

Austin Revera

29th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.8

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Josef Mendez (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Cedric DeRouchie (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Sam Rosenberg (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs James Wray (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Craig Krempels (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R14	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Jake Landaiche

32nd • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

6.2

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Evan Brook (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Omeid Vadipour (Unknown)

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

R13

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs James Wray (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R13	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Kyle Yoder

47th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.9

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Emery Powell (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Trey Meyers (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Cedric DeRouchie (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Holden Isaacs (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.85
R11	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R13	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R14	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Win	✗	0.54	2.59

Joshua Lau

50th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

6.3

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Majin Bae (Unknown)

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Eli Teed (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Trevor Rich (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

R14

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.63
R10	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R13	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.36
R14	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Eric Dauernnheim

28th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.7

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Nick Gabler (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.18
R13	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.54

Craig Krempels

39th • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs James Wray (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Michael Stanko (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Carl Meisner (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Austin Revera (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

James Wray

42nd • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Austin Revera (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Jason Watkins (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Jake Landaiche (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.36
R14	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Philip Huang

45th • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.2

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Ryan Lester (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Maxwell Mitchell

53rd • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.0

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Randall Sims (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Trevor Rich (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Philip Huang (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Eli Teed (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.81
R11	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	Draft	Cindra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.18
R13	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Gui Cohen

37th • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Justin Gottlieb (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R14	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Stanko

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Joshua Rath (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Win	✗	0.54	2.78
R11	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryan Lester

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Majin Bae (Unknown)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Tayler Adolphson (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Philip Huang (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.50
R11	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tayler Adolphson

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Ryan Lester (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Drake Plew (Cindra) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	Draft	Cindra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Emery Powell

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Kyle Yoder (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Sam Rosenberg (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Reitenbach

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.