Calling: Memphis 2025 [B] Sealed Deck - Arakni, Web of Deceit (Draft)

Arakni, Web of Deceit

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michael Hamilton

1st • 8-1-0

100%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

4.4

Surp

10.9

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Robin Avenoso (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Evan Brook (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Justin Gottlieb (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R15 Draft

Round 15: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R16 Draft

Round 16: Win vs Gary Gold (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R17 Draft

Round 17: Win vs Austin Redington (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

10.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.00
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.10
R12	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R14	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.50
R15	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.50
R16	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.71
R17	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.89

Austin Redington

2nd • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.4

Surp

7.0

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Evan Bridges (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Justin Gottlieb (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Gary Gold (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R15 Draft

Round 15: Win vs Alex Chițu (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R16 Draft

Round 16: Win vs Cedric DeRouchie (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R17 Draft

Round 17: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

7.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.07
R11	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.30
R14	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.50
R15	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.50
R16	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.60
R17	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Clair

11th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

7.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Abigail Welday (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Michael Stanko (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Michael Dalton (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

7.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.65
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.79
R13	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	2.08
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Trey Meyers

25th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

7.2

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Sam Rosenberg (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Kyle Yoder (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Carl Meisner (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Maxwell Taylor (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

7.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.35
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.65
R12	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Evan Brook

18th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.6

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Jake Landaiche (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Noah Clark (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Justin Gottlieb (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.35
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.50
R11	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.76
R12	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Joshua Rath

35th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

6.3

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Michael Stanko (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R12

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Omeid Vadipour (Unknown)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Eli Teed (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Philip Huang (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	2.09

Maxwell Taylor

41st • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.3

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Drake Plew (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Sean Gray (Unknown)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Shane Martin (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Trey Meyers (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R14

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Majin Bae (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.44
R10	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Shane Martin

44th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.5

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs None (Unknown)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Michael Feng (Unknown)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Eli Teed (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Maxwell Taylor (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Sam Rosenberg (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Eli Teed

49th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.4

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Shane Martin (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Joshua Lau (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.79
R13	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	2.09

Nathanael Hunt

52nd • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.6

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Ryan Lester (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Trey Meyers (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R13

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Majin Bae (Unknown)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.60
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.65
R12	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Abigail Welday

40th • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Joshua Rath (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Kyle Yoder (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.79
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R14	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Andrew Henderson

48th • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Eli Teed (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs William Bradshaw (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Trevor Rich (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Shane Martin (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.60
R11	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.76
R12	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R13	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joel Grizzelle

51st • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Maxwell Taylor (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

R13

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Michael Feng (Unknown)

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Kyle Yoder (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.35
R10	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.