Cindra at Calling: Memphis 2025 [B] Sealed Deck

Cindra

18 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gary Gold

3rd • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

6.9

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Nick Gabler (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Jason Watkins (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Mark Morrison (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Justin Gottlieb (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Austin Redington (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R15 Draft

Round 15: Win vs Alexander Vore (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R16 Draft

Round 16: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.12
R10	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.25
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.26
R12	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R14	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R15	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.72
R16	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Connor Bryant

17th • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

9.7

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Sean Gray (Unknown)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Sam Rosenberg (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Trey Meyers (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

9.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.68
R12	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.51	2.08
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.99
R14	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.51	2.43

Nicholas Tran

15th • 4-1-1

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

7.6

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Draw vs Christopher Iaali (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Holden Isaacs (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Jake Landaiche (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Austin Revera (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Carl Meisner (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

7.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.83
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.99
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	2.14

Jesse Hudak

21st • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

6.9

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Randall Sims (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Connor Bryant (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Robin Avenoso (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.91
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.83
R13	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Elaine Cao

30th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

7.7

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Majin Bae (Unknown)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Holden Isaacs (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Abigail Welday (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

7.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.56
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R14	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.51	2.43

Randall Sims

36th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

8.3

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Drake Plew (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R12

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Sean Gray (Unknown)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs William Bradshaw (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Drake Plew (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

8.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Christopher Iaali

13th • 3-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

6.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Draw vs Nicholas Tran (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Noah Clark (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Jake Landaiche (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Gui Cohen (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Evan Bridges (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.68
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.99
R14	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Justin Gottlieb

9th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.5

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Gui Cohen (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Austin Redington (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Gary Gold (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Evan Brook (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.37
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.91
R12	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.51	2.25
R14	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Noah Clark

19th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Holden Isaacs (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Evan Brook (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Cedric DeRouchie (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.83
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Nick Gabler

22nd • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.6

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Gary Gold (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Abigail Welday (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Jason Watkins (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Robin Avenoso (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.73
R11	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.99
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Tee Thebeau

38th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.7

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Tayler Adolphson (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Joshua Lau (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Elaine Cao (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.37
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.53
R11	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Evan Bridges

20th • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Austin Redington (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Cedric DeRouchie (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.68
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.83
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R14	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Holden Isaacs

43rd • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.8

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Noah Clark (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Omeid Vadipour (Unknown)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Kyle Yoder (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

R14

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Michael Feng (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.99
R14	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jason Watkins

46th • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.7

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Michael Stanko (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Gary Gold (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Carl Meisner (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs James Wray (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

R14

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.37
R10	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R14	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Drake Plew

54th • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Maxwell Taylor (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Sean Gray (Unknown)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Randall Sims (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Tayler Adolphson (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

R13

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Randall Sims (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.83
R13	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

William Bradshaw

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

4.6

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Feng (Unknown)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Randall Sims (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.20
R12	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.40
R13	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Trevor Rich

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R11	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Matthew Greenleaf

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Tayler Adolphson (Fang) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.47	2.52
R12	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.