Battle Hardened: Christchurch 2025 - Fang (Sealed)

Fang

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Darryn Ying

5th • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Scott Zuppicich (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Elliott Nichols (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 51:49

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Robert Piper (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Caleb Sinclair (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Kelvin Clarke (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs James Gilchrist (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Sealed	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

James Gilchrist

3rd • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Yifei Wang (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Dan Jay (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Mathew Fletcher (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Elijah Hewlett (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs James Griffin (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	Sealed	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Feng

10th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Hill (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Max Middleton (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Cameron Hay (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs David Rowley (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 51:49

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Robert Piper (Unknown)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Marie Watson (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Kelvin Clarke

12th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Adrienne Morales (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander McCallum (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Alcock (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Yifei Wang (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Thomas Falconer (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Elijah Hewlett

13th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Raymond Ocdol (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs David Marshall (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 51:49

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Stephen Kau Kau (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs James Gilchrist (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Sam Davison (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Cameron Hay (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Dave Laffan

15th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs David Marshall (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Falconer (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Johann Dickson (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Smith (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs kenny forrester (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Georgia Sumner (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Sealed	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Sam Davison

22nd • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Alcock (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Stephen Kau Kau (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs James Griffin (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Elliott Nichols (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Elijah Hewlett (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Lester (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Sealed	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

kenny forrester

23rd • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Max Middleton (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Lester (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Raymond Ocdol (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Dave Laffan (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Tamsyn Willow Lawn Stewart (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Sealed	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Thomas Falconer

26th • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Smith (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Dave Laffan (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ricki Galway (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Cameron Hay (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Kelvin Clarke (Fang) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Sealed	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tom Hartley

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Stephen Kau Kau (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Georgia Sumner (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Dan Jay (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Hill (Cindra) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.