Arakni, Web of Deceit at Battle Hardened: Christchurch 2025

Arakni, Web of Deceit

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Marshall

1st • 6-0-0

100%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Dave Laffan (Fang) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Elijah Hewlett (Fang) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Tamsyn Willow Lawn Stewart (Cindra) - Expected: 53:47

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs James Griffin (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Caleb Sinclair (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Adrienne Morales (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	Sealed	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.35
R3	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Caleb Sinclair

2nd • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Clark (Cindra) - Expected: 53:47

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ricki Galway (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Lachlan Buchan (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Darryn Ying (Fang) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs David Marshall (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R5	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

David Rowley

3rd • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Dunn (Cindra) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Marie Watson (Cindra) - Expected: 53:47

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Alexander McCallum (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Michael Feng (Fang) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Elliott Nichols (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Robert Piper (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R5	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Elliott Nichols

5th • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Johann Dickson (Cindra) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Fang) - Expected: 49:51

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ben Jowett ()

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Sam Davison (Fang) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs David Rowley (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Max Middleton (Cindra) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	Sealed	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R5	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

Lachlan Buchan

11th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Mathew Fletcher (Cindra) - Expected: 53:47

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Yifei Wang (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Caleb Sinclair (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tamsyn Willow Lawn Stewart (Cindra) - Expected: 53:47

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Adrienne Morales (Unknown)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Scott Zuppicich (Cindra) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.61
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

Henry Moore

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ricki Galway (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Adrienne Morales (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Dan Griffin (Cindra) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Cindra	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.