Cindra at Battle Hardened: Christchurch 2025

Cindra

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Marie Watson

17th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ben Jowett ()

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs David Rowley (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 47:53

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Smith (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Alexander McCallum (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Feng (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Fang	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Cameron Hay

18th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Morgan R. (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Aidan Ward (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Falconer (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Elijah Hewlett (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Fang	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Fang	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.94
R6	Sealed	Fang	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Max Middleton

19th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs kenny forrester (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Feng (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Georgia Sumner (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Adrienne Morales (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Dan Griffin (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Elliott Nichols (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Fang	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.19
R2	Sealed	Fang	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Scott Zuppicich

20th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Hill (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Sam Smith (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Robert Piper (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Raymond Ocdol (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Lachlan Buchan (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Fang	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Dan Griffin

24th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander McCallum (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Jowett ()

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Henry Moore (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Lester (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Max Middleton (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Sam Smith (Unknown)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R4	Sealed	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Tamsyn Willow Lawn Stewart

25th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Smith (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs David Marshall (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Lachlan Buchan (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 47:53

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Yifei Wang (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs kenny forrester (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Fang	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Matthew Lester

28th • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Georgia Sumner (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs James Griffin (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs kenny forrester (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Dan Griffin (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Sam Smith (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Sam Davison (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Fang	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Fang	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Raymond Ocdol

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Elijah Hewlett (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Dunn (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Yifei Wang (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs kenny forrester (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Scott Zuppicich (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Fang	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Fang	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.90
R5	Sealed	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mathew Fletcher

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Lachlan Buchan (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Johann Dickson (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs James Gilchrist (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Aidan Ward (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Sealed	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Fang	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryan Hill

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Feng (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Scott Zuppicich (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Aidan Ward (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Hartley (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Fang	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Fang	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Kevin Alcock

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Davison (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Lee Mackley (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Kelvin Clarke (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Fang	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Sealed	Fang	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Johann Dickson

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Elliott Nichols (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Mathew Fletcher (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Laffan (Fang) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Sealed	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Fang	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Aaron Dunn

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs David Rowley (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Raymond Ocdol (Cindra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Sealed	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Clark

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Caleb Sinclair (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 47:53

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Arakni, Web of Deceit	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.