Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Pedro Esaki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Keegan McNear (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Wadley (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Michael Dirksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 52:48
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.