Battle Hardened Houston: 2024 - Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn (CC) - FaB-Results

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matthew DiGregorio

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jose Badillo (Unknown)

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tim Lee (Unknown)

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Agudelo (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

dropped • 1-2-0

0%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

Nuu, Alluring Desire

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Phillips (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 24:76

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ross Fontana (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.88
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.