Calling: Florence 2024 - Florian (Draft)

Florian

23 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brodie Spurlock

3rd • 4-1-0

80%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

8.4

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Martin Holík (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Unknown)

R12

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Unknown)

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

8.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.80
R10	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.20
R12	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.40
R13	Draft	Verdance	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Jack Raven

5th • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

7.5

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Artur Wysocki (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Xavier Aubert (Unknown)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

7.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.25
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.50
R11	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.75
R12	Draft	Verdance	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Tomasz Żelazko

5th • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

5.5

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Unknown)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Aurora) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Aurora) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.50
R11	Draft	Aurora	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.99
R12	Draft	Aurora	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Francesco Giorgio

5th • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Aurora) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Aurora) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Aurora) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Aurora	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	Draft	Aurora	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R11	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.75
R12	Draft	Aurora	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Jean Luka Zorko

11th • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

6.7

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Bruno Cracco (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.00
R10	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.67

Martin Holík

13th • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

7.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Bruno Cracco (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Nicolas Scandalis (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

7.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.33
R11	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.67

Max Dieckmann

14th • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

7.0

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Unknown)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Edoardo Galli (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

7.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.33
R11	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.67

Daniele Frattarelli

22nd • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

6.3

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Ian Zhang (Unknown)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Edoardo Galli (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Jack Raven (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.00
R10	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.33
R11	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mateusz Sass

29th • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

6.7

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Mark Henderson (Unknown)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Unknown)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Francesco Motta (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.00
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.67

Michał Sierszulski

31st • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

7.0

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Feng (Unknown)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Unknown)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Hanno Lünser (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

7.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.33
R11	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.67

Nicolas Scandalis

18th • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Robert Szary (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Unknown)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Martin Holík (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.00
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Edoardo Galli

19th • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Luca Barcella (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Verdance	45%	Win	✗	0.53	3.28
R10	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mirko Dolce

20th • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Unknown)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Robert Szary (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.33
R11	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Hanno Lünser

36th • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Patrick Urfer (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Simon Nielsen ()

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Michał Sierszulski (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.00
R10	Draft		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Francesco Motta

37th • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Diego Paoletti (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Lorenzo Cavazzini (Unknown)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Mateusz Sass (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.00
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Oliver Gehrig

39th • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Szots Daniel (Unknown)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Patrick Urfer (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Feng (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.33
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Diego Paoletti

40th • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Francesco Motta (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Aurora) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.33
R11	Draft	Aurora	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Žan Baumgartner

41st • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

3.6

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Kamil Rejman (Unknown)

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Eser Unger (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Edgar Strogonov (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Verdance	45%	Win	✗	0.53	3.64
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patrick Urfer

42nd • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.67

Richard Kruithof

44th • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

4.0

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Antonio Briola (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Eser Unger (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Verdance	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	Draft	Verdance	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R11	Draft	Verdance	45%	Win	✗	0.53	4.01

Philip van Donselaar

34th • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Unknown)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bruno Cracco

35th • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Martin Holík (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Robert Szary (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Artur Wysocki

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Jack Raven (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.