Aurora at Calling: Florence 2024

Aurora

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Paul van Gijssel

2nd • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.5

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Tomasz Żelazko (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Jacob Trossing (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R14

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.53
R11	Draft	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.84
R13	Draft	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob Trossing

3rd • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

3.9

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Unknown)

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.65
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	2.20
R13	Draft	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lorenzo Tarateta

32nd • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

6.7

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Lorenzo Cavazzini (Unknown)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Alessandro Brogi (Unknown)

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Diego Paoletti (Florian) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.33
R11	Draft	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.47	3.36

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.