Aurora at Battle Hardened: Florence 2024

Aurora

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Robert Crone

5th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Viet Pham (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Petrone (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Ralli (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Massimiliano Sacco (Unknown)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Jan Vaculík (Unknown)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Data Doll MKII) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Blitz	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Blitz	Data Doll MKII	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lorenzo Petrone

12th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Massimiliano Sacco (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Robert Crone (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Unknown)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Piotr Krzempek (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Michael Manferdini (Unknown)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Federico Sirri

14th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Del Moro (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Viet Pham (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Blitz	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Blitz	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrea Del Moro

23rd • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Jan Vaculík (Unknown)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Andrea Caregnato (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	Blitz	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Chirulescu

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Unknown)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Andrea Caregnato (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Zänker (Unknown)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Matteo Brunori (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.