National Championship 2026 - Estonia - Cindra, Dracai of Retribution (CC)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joonas Ervald

5th • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Indrek Orlov (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jevgeni Dubei (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dmitri Sidorenko (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Indrek Orlov (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.11
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.86
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Rain Ööpik

5th • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dmitri Sidorenko (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs ILJA Ivantsikov (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jevgeni Dubei (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Gustavo Stabelini (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Aria Loog

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jevgeni Dubei (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gustavo Stabelini (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 35:65

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Indrek Orlov (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.