Battle Hardened: Melbourne 2023 - Maxx Nitro (Sealed)

Maxx Nitro

21 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonathan Luey

5th • 5-1-0

33%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.9

Diff

30:70

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Liam Hussey (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Philip Nagle (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Baines (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Charlie Thompson (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Blake Godenzi (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Barry Luo (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.31
R2	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R3	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R4	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.54
R6	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Thomas Bailey Galbraith

5th • 5-1-0

33%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Bonham (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Justin Lim (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Eugene C (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Ward (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Aidan Ward (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.93
R4	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.75
R5	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R6	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.12

Dr. Daniel McKay

1st • 4-2-0

17%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Paul Johnson (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Faron Swingler (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs David Spencer (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

30:70

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Vincent Lim (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Shaun Leow (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.19
R2	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.93
R4	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R5	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.54
R6	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Gabe Sher

10th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Bastion (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Vincent Lim (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Adam Parker (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jackie Rousseau (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Philip Nagle (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Eugene C (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.75
R5	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.93
R6	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Barry Luo

18th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Toni Challenor (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Edwin Ripper (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Faron Swingler (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs David Spencer (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Aidan Ward (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Luey (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.62
R3	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.23
R5	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Charlie Thompson

21st • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Vincent Lam (Unknown)

30:70

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs David Spencer (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jalen Williams Max (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Luey (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Donald Tang (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

30:70

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Ashley Minjoot (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R4	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.54
R6	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Charles Nelson

22nd • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Little (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Bonham (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Toni Challenor (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Shaun Leow (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Nikolas Moraitis (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R5	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.93
R6	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Scott Mackenzie

24th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

30:70

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Xavier Nelson (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Alari Arcana (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Bastion (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Ashley Minjoot (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Charles Nelson (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R5	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R6	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jerry Kaonang

26th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Mat Collett (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Lim (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Alari Arcana (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Nathan Bonham (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jake mccormack

27th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

30:70

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Donald Tang (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kory Hearn (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jerry Kaonang (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Eugene C (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Hayden Dale (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jasin Long (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R5	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Justin Lim

28th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Mat Collett (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Philip Nagle (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jerry Kaonang (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs David Spencer (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Adrienne Morales (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R6	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Alari Arcana

32nd • 1-3-2

67%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Nathan Bonham (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Draw vs Nick McGrath (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jerry Kaonang (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Draw	✗	0.28	-
R5	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nathan Bonham

31st • 1-4-1

83%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Charles Nelson (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Alari Arcana (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)

30:70

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Edwin Ripper (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jerry Kaonang (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R6	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matt Rogers

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jerry Kaonang (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Adam Little (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Lachlan Buchan (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs James Lewis (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

30:70

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Eugene C (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.45
R3	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R4	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.48
R5	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Luis Henriques

dropped • 2-3-0

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

30:70

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Vincent Lim (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Paul Johnson (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jackie Rousseau (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Liam Hussey (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

30:70

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs James Lewis (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.45
R3	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.48
R5	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Adam Parker

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

30:70

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Angove (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Robert Hall (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Adrienne Morales (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R3	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Tristan Sampson

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

30:70

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Shaun Leow (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Liam Hussey (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

30:70

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jasin Long (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.93
R3	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R4	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Faron Swingler

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs logan boyd (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Barry Luo (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryan Bastion

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Nick McGrath (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.23
R3	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Toni Challenor

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Barry Luo (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Dash, Database) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Charles Nelson (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed	Dash, Database	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

corey ingram

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Teklovossen) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Teklovossen	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.