Battle Hardened: Melbourne 2023 - Dash, Database (Sealed)

Dash, Database

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lucas Ward

3rd • 5-1-0

67%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Alari Arcana (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Toni Challenor (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Blake Godenzi (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Adrienne Morales (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R4	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.99
R6	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Aidan Ward

11th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Eugene C (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jaii Nestler (Dash, Database) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Angove (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Hayden Dale (Dash, Database) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Barry Luo (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R4	Sealed	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.74
R6	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Jackie Rousseau

14th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs David Spencer (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ashley Minjoot (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Luis Henriques (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jasin Long (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs James Lewis (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.40
R3	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.99
R6	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.19

Hayden Dale

19th • 3-2-1

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Edwin Ripper (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nikolas Moraitis (Dash, Database) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Aidan Ward (Dash, Database) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jake mccormack (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Draw vs Blake Godenzi (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Dash, Database	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.74
R6	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Draw	✗	0.44	-

Philip Nagle

17th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Robert Hall (Dash, Database) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Luey (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Justin Lim (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Donald Tang (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs David Spencer (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R5	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Nikolas Moraitis

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Kory Hearn (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Hayden Dale (Dash, Database) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Angove (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Charles Nelson (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Dash, Database	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.95
R5	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Paul Johnson

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Luis Henriques (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Mat Collett (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ashley Minjoot (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Angove (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Alexander Norton

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jasin Long (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Adrienne Morales (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nick McGrath (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Edwin Ripper (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R4	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Adam Little

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Charles Nelson (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Donald Tang (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R2	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jaii Nestler

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs James Lewis (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Aidan Ward (Dash, Database) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Edwin Ripper (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Dash, Database	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.19

Jalen Williams Max

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Adrienne Morales (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Lachlan Buchan (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Charlie Thompson (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.40
R2	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Robert Hall

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Philip Nagle (Dash, Database) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Parker (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Ashley Minjoot (Teklovossen) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Dash, Database	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Maxx Nitro	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Sealed	Teklovossen	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.