National Championship 2026 - Hungary - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

András Kovács

10th • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dávid István Kovács (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robert Secheli (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tamás Somoskövi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.57
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ádám Mészáros

14th • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Márk Mészáros (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Balint Herendi (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Csaba "Cranta" Dezső (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.86
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tamás Somoskövi

24th • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Imre Simon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Márk Mészáros (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs András Kovács (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.28
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.