National Championship 2026 - Slovakia - Fai, Rising Rebellion (CC)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matúš Martinko

3rd • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jakub Schneider (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Viktor Sojka (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lukáš Püspöki (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Richard Kollár (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jakub Schneider (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.40
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Samuel Konig

dropped • 1-0-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

0.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Viktoria Tankinova (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (0.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.39

Samuel Krnáč

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

0.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Radoslav Konig (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (0.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.