Aurora, Legacy of Tempest
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
22nd • 2-1-0
33%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
1.4
Surp
1.9
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Szots (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Vlad Ciobotea (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kolleck Adrian (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (1.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.