Calling: Auckland - Aurora, Emissary of Lightning (Draft)

Aurora, Emissary of Lightning

20 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ben Dodd

2nd • 4-2-1

43%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

8.1

Diff

40:60

R8 Draft

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Ross Newson (Unknown)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Adam Little (Unknown)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Draw vs Dennis Zhang (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Simon Nielsen (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

8.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.61
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43
R11	Draft	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.41
R13	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.61
R14	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Edward Kim

3rd • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

8.0

Diff

40:60

R8 Draft

Round 8: Win vs Sam Payne (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Sam Davison (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Karel Doorman (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R12

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Andrew Qi (Unknown)

40:60

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

8.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.88
R9	Draft	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.58
R12	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Dennis Zhang

5th • 2-2-1

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

3.4

Diff

R8 Draft

Round 8: Win vs Ross Newson (Unknown)

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Shaun Leow (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Draw vs Ben Dodd (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.60
R9	Draft	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.80
R10	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	Draft	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Thomas Bailey Galbraith

10th • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

8.5

Diff

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs Alexander McCallum (Unknown)

40:60

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Sam Payne (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Matt Rogers (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Darryn Ying (Zyggy) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

8.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Win	✗	0.62	3.17
R10	Draft	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.50
R11	Draft	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.51	2.82

Matthew Wakelin

22nd • 2-1-1

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

6.4

Diff

40:60

R8 Draft

Round 8: Draw vs Jayden Allan (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Louis Shum (Unknown)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Keegan Walls (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Sam Payne (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Draw	✗	0.38	-
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.50
R11	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Win	✗	0.62	3.87

Matt Rogers

20th • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

5.0

Diff

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Unknown)

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Keegan Walls (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Louis Shum (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Draft	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.25
R10	Draft	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.75

Marie Watson

30th • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

5.6

Diff

50:50

R8 Draft

Round 8: Win vs Zak Murray (Zyggy) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Ryan Williams (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Benjamin Rowan (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Elliott Nichols (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.51	2.05
R9	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R10	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Win	✗	0.62	3.52
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Rowley

37th • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

5.3

Diff

40:60

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs Karel Doorman (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Liam Fisher (Unknown)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Kiki Labad (Zyggy) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Donald Tang (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.51	2.56
R11	Draft	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.75

Shaun Leow

13th • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

R8 Draft

Round 8: Win vs Andrew Qi (Unknown)

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Adam Little (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R9	Draft	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sam Davison

32nd • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs Archer Ying (Unknown)

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Edward Kim (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Will Evans (Zyggy) - Expected: 49:51

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Archer Ying (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Draft	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Zyggy	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.75

Arran Beamsley

41st • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs Justin Cu (Unknown)

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Zak Murray (Zyggy) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Alexander Dobler (Zyggy) - Expected: 49:51

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs James Wakefield (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Draft	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.51	2.31
R10	Draft	Zyggy	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Conor Armstrong

43rd • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs Elliott Nichols (Unknown)

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Kiki Labad (Zyggy) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Donald Tang (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Liam Fisher (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Draft	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.51	2.31
R10	Draft	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Donald Tang

44th • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Collins (Zyggy) - Expected: 49:51

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Ian Chu (Unknown)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Conor Armstrong (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs David Rowley (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Zyggy	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.50
R11	Draft	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ethan Holland

45th • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs Cayle Mccreath (Zyggy) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Anthony Balmes (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Zak Murray (Zyggy) - Expected: 49:51

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Nik Malev (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Zyggy	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R9	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R10	Draft	Zyggy	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.75

Keegan Walls

38th • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Matthew Wakelin (Aurora, Emissary of Lightning) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Jayden Allan (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	Draft	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Aurora, Emissary of Lightning	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Freeman Monika

dropped • 1-0-0

Meta

+0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

11.3

Diff

40:60

R8 Draft

Round 8: Win vs Sean Stanley (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (0.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

11.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	40%	Win	✗	0.62	11.26

Lynnette Nattrass

dropped • 1-0-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

8.0

Diff

R8 Draft

Round 8: Win vs Barak Abitbol (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

8.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	8.00

Ettie Davies

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs Shamal Singh (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kelvin Clarke

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs Ryan McIntyre (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Troy Wilson

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs James Wakefield (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R8	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.