Olympia at Calling: Hartford

Olympia

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michael Hamilton

5th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

6.3

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Jeff Stamm (Unknown)

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Elly Bird (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Kassai) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R15 Draft

Round 15: Loss vs David Lee (Kassai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.29
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43
R11	Draft	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Kassai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.26
R13	Draft	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R14	Draft	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.37
R15	Draft	Kassai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Jacob Baugh

20th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

7.1

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Kassai) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Evan Bridges (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

R12

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Caleb Engen (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Casey Knepley (Kassai) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

7.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	Draft	Kassai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.23
R11	Draft	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.17
R12	Draft	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R14	Draft	Kassai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.72

Michael Bell

32nd • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.2

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Jordan Clost (Kassai) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Cody Williams (Kassai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Dakota Cook (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Steven Doan (Kassai) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Kassai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	Draft	Kassai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.23
R11	Draft	Kassai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R12	Draft	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.37
R13	Draft	Kassai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.60
R14	Draft	Kassai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Matt Jacobs

34th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

6.1

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Unknown)

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Jodey Burney (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Pedro Esaki (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Alexander Tedeschi (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R11	Draft	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R13	Draft	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R14	Draft	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.76

ry mo

43rd • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.8

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Ryan Goldfinger (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Lucas Molho (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Jodey Burney (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

R13

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Jodey Burney (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.78
R10	Draft	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.97
R11	Draft	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R12	Draft	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R13	Draft	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.