Dromai, Ash Artist at Battle Hardened: Baltimore 2025

Dromai, Ash Artist

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Victoria Lakey

15th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs David Dredge (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

70:30

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

70:30

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Borger (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

70:30

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Jae-Moon Hwang (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Michael Feng (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Michael Feng (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.19
R2	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.31
R5	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.38
R6	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.46
R6	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.46

Anthony Coburn

19th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Henry (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Dustin Harris (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Brady Hayes (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Violet Dold (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Violet Dold (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.32
R4	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Christopher Logel

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Brady Hayes (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Dayton Smallwood (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.