Puffin at Calling: Taipei 2025

Puffin

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Christopher Iaali

3rd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

10.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Dale Low (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Alexander Dobler (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Unknown)

30:70

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Scott Mackenzie (Marlynn) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Zac Lau (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 56:44

R14

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Cody Gebert (Unknown)

30:70

R15 Draft

Round 15: Win vs shirui wu (Marlynn) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

30:70

R16 Draft

Round 16: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Marlynn) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

10.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.12
R10	Draft	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Marlynn	30%	Win	✗	0.69	2.55
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.38
R14	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.75
R15	Draft	Marlynn	30%	Win	✗	0.69	3.19
R16	Draft	Marlynn	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Alexander Dobler

5th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

8.9

Diff

30:70

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Chanon Puttaree (Marlynn) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs RICARDO DIAZ (Unknown)

R12

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Ivan Teo (Unknown)

30:70

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Marlynn) - Expected: 31:69

R14

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Xavier McLean (Unknown)

55:45

R15 Draft

Round 15: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

8.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	30%	Win	✗	0.69	2.19
R10	Draft	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.57
R12	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.71
R13	Draft	Marlynn	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R14	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R15	Draft	Gravy Bones	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Ken Kuwahara

20th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

6.3

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs kouji hamada (Unknown)

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Zac Lau (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs shirui wu (Marlynn) - Expected: 31:69

30:70

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Keith Tan (Marlynn) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

R13

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Unknown)

30:70

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Marlynn) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.41
R11	Draft	Marlynn	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R12	Draft	Marlynn	30%	Win	✗	0.69	3.40
R13	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Marlynn	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Takumi Watanabe

38th • 2-3-1

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.3

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Simon Nielsen (Unknown)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Ivan Teo (Unknown)

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Unknown)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 56:44

R13

R13 Draft

Round 13: Draw vs Alexander Vore (Unknown)

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	Draft	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

SU WEI MING

49th • 2-3-1

83%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.8

Diff

30:70

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Marlynn) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Draw vs tim Lin (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 56:44

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Reynold Lam (Unknown)

R12

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Unknown)

R13

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs kouji hamada (Unknown)

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Narin Leelaporn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.98

Dale Low

27th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Torpong Juntree (Unknown)

30:70

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Marlynn) - Expected: 31:69

R12

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Unknown)

30:70

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Keith Tan (Marlynn) - Expected: 31:69

R14

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Lee Ming-Han (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Marlynn	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R12	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Marlynn	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R14	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

OWN HSIANG YU

43rd • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Zac Lau (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Mortal Chu (Marlynn) - Expected: 31:69

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs kouji hamada (Unknown)

R12

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Unknown)

R13

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs CYK Lionel (Unknown)

R14

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Unknown)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R10	Draft	Marlynn	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.