World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Canada - Gravy Bones (Sealed)

Gravy Bones

25 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michel Corvino

1st • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Deanna Tennant (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Derek Chiu (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Celeste Vautour (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Madeline Abernathy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Brian Fowler (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Sunny Yang (Unknown)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Eric Lerer (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Adrian Malana

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Atkin (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Smith (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs David Wadley (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Michel Remillard (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Morrison (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Unknown)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Russell Howse (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Connie Barnett

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Cass Emerson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Kegan Allen (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Atkin (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Henri Veillette (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jay Maillet (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Millie Marcotte (Unknown)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Nauris Rozenfelds (Unknown)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Dien Tran (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Madeline Abernathy

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Kegan Allen (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Penny Schankula (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Isaiah Malana (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Michel Corvino (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs David Wadley (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs nicolas Jamoulle (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Julien Bergeron (Unknown)

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Brian Fowler (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

James Wray

dropped • 5-2-1

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Devon Wong (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ian Smith (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Daniel murray (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Draw vs Yuki Lee Bender (Unknown)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Unknown)

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Edouard Veillette (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Brandon Smith

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Adrian Malana (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Larson (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Karl (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Unknown)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Joe Fonseca (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Nauris Rozenfelds (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Cass Emerson

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Connie Barnett (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Larson (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Zacchigna-moxey (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Yan Garito (Unknown)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jeff Barber (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Celeste Vautour (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Kevin Le (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Celeste Vautour

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Eyal Awesome (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs James Wells (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Michel Corvino (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Riley Thomas (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Yan Garito (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Cass Emerson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Shymko (Unknown)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs David Wilson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Chris Jones

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Brayden Pritchard (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Ward (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Steele (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jordan Robson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs David Wilson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Tyler Shymko (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

nicolas Jamoulle

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Joey Boily (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Frédéric Poitras (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs David Roehl (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Aidan O'Sullivan (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Ethan Raymond (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Madeline Abernathy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Jeff Whyte (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Eric Lerer (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

David Wilson

dropped • 4-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Jordan Clost (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Abhay D Srivastava (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Anita Ansley (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Vladimir Bregaudit (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Eyal Awesome (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Ryan Larson (Unknown)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Chris Jones (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Celeste Vautour (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Eric Christensen

dropped • 4-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Emily Froese (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Fernandez (Unknown)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jeff Barber (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Levstein (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Unknown)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Aiden Dee (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Draw vs Sacha Fonseca (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-

Khamphiene Phommisai

dropped • 4-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Frédéric Poitras (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Knott (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Chuck BT (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Deanna Tennant (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Alex Hackbart (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Simon Cheng (Unknown)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Mariusz Korlacki (Unknown)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Bobby Bourque (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Jeff Whyte

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Isaak Krut (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Shan Huang (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Emily Froese (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Levstein (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jessie Naamani (Unknown)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lucas Morrison

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Aiden Dee (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Sam Cooper (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Riley Thomas (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Adrian Malana (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Isaiah Malana (Unknown)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Dien Tran (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Cody Keefner

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Tan (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Yeo (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Emily Froese (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Felipe Diniz (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Kegan Allen (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jordan Robson

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Michel Remillard (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Harvinder Brar (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Clark Johnston (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Chris Jones (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sam Cooper

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Alex Hackbart (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Morrison (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Le (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Mariusz Korlacki (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Lukas Maki (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ryan Ward

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Liz Waldberg (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Yan Garito (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Jones (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Kegan Allen (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Vloet (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Rei Chua-Alamag

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Laflin (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Violet Davies (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Frédéric Poitras (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Erik Cameron

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Mariusz Korlacki (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Liz Waldberg (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Armando D'Alessandro

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Anita Ansley (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Tsafalas (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Jaszczur

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Erik Cameron (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Isaiah Malana (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Simha Karsenti

dropped • 0-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Isaiah Malana (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Jarek Berszakiewicz (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Joe Fonseca (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Devon Drury

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Amado (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler McIntyre (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.