Puffin at World Championship Qualifier 2025

Puffin

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Johnson

5th • 7-0-1

62%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

5.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Jiuzhou Hao (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Chuck BT (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Mike Morelli (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Simon Cheng (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Millie Marcotte (Unknown)

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Chris Jones (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Cass Emerson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Michel Corvino (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.39
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.93
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.09
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.25

Jeff Barber

5th • 7-1-0

62%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.9

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Brayden Pritchard (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Millie Marcotte (Unknown)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Eric Christensen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Mat Himmelman (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Cass Emerson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Brian Fowler (Unknown)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs David Wadley (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.47
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.78
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Eric Cherniavski

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs James Wells (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Lukas Maki (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.