Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at National Championship 2025

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Dominik Šupa

3rd • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matej Sadloň (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Igor Makarev (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Dolejš (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Papež (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Martin Holík (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.08
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.14
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.69
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Kryštof Halmo

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tomáš Skopec (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 82:18

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Miroslav Košař (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 83:17

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jakub Kouřil (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.09
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.18
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Zdeněk Matura

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Roman Demero (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jakub Kouřil (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Roman Legíň (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.41

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.