Azalea, Ace in the Hole
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 6-3-0
56%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.9
Surp
3.3
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daja Todesco (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Florian Badertscher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs sylvain verdet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Urfer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65
Round 7: Win vs Patrick Urfer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Florian Badertscher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
70:30
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.