National Championship 2025 - Lithuania - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC) - FaB-Results

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Vladislovas Kofyrinas

1st • 3-0-0

67%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gabija Petravičiūtė (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rokas Pocius (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tomas Liutvinas (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.80
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

Mantas Ptakauskas

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tomas Liutvinas (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Kassai of the Golden Sand

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rytis Butiskis (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ugnius Švedas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.53
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.