Azalea, Ace in the Hole at National Championship 2025

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Oleg Zabalujev (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 45:55

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vladislovas Kofyrinas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mantas Navickas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.38
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.37

Vaidas Kovalevskis

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ugnius Švedas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Darvydas Čepukaitis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rokas Jaskevičius (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.16
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.