National Championship 2025 - Vietnam - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC) - FaB-Results

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

2nd • 3-0-0

100%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lane Thomason (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hiep Le (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 75:25

Fang, Dracai of Blades

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Giang Hoang (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.28
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.73

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

Katsu, the Wanderer

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nguyen Tuan Anh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tien Dat (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 62:38

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kiều VAnh (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.45
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.