Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025 - Vietnam
Arakni, Marionette
1 players • Match results by round
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dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Duy Ta (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Nguyễn (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Than Thang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.