National Championship 2025 - Vietnam - Azalea, Ace in the Hole (CC)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Doanh Cao Xuan

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Phú Nguyễn Khả (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hieu Tran (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Quân Doãn (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nguyễn Tuấn

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tuan Nguyen Dinh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Khoi Dinh (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Nguyễn (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.47
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Phan Quan

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nguyen Billie (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Giang Hoang (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hiep Le (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.