Enigma at Battle Hardened: Tokyo

Enigma

19 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Roger Bodee

5th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs FUNG CC (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Eric Nguyễn (Zen) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nick Pearce (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Hayden Dale (Zen) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Vincent Lim (Zen) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Nova Chan (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Chris Brummett (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Ji Timm Lee (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Zen	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R3	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Zen	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.69
R5	Sealed	Zen	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.87
R6	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R7	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

bill huynh

12th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.9

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Atsushi Taichi (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Unknown)

65:35

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ken Sawada (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ji Timm Lee (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Eric Nguyễn (Zen) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Kean Onn Lim (Zen) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Vincent Lim (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Masaru Yoshizawa (Zen) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.23
R4	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Sealed	Zen	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.87
R6	Sealed	Zen	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.04
R7	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Sealed	Zen	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.39

Chu Heng Eng

15th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.5

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Torpong Juntree (Zen) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Vinh Luong (Unknown)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Niklas Astner (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Deitrich Mohan (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Po-Chuan Lin (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Huang Hsiang En (Zen) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Justin Cu (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Zen	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.17
R2	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.38
R6	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Zen	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.21
R8	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Peng Joon

22nd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Eric Lerer (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Shuto Ushiro (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Vincent Lim (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Rayland Luiz Duarte (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Ken Sawada (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Niklas Astner (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.38
R6	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.46
R7	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.54
R8	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Chris Brummett

26th • 4-3-1

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Naochika Machida (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kyrios Mak (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Yusuke Asama (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Hao-Han Chuang (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Draw vs ricky leung (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Leon Lu (Zen) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs kei kimura (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Draw	✓	0.65	-
R6	Sealed	Zen	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.04
R7	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Takumi Watanabe

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Yuto Suzuki (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Motoki Soezima (Unknown)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Rocko Yan (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Nick Pearce (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs kei kimura (Zen) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Daisuke Nakashima (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Zen	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.19
R7	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Hao-Han Chuang

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Kingman Leung (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Angelito Jr Eusebio (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs kei kimura (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Alex Lo (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

John Wardan

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Lo (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Deitrich Mohan (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Shuto Ushiro (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Nguyễn (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs KOHEI TAKANO (Zen) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Huang Hsiang En (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	Sealed	Zen	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.15
R6	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Nick Pearce

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Kyrios Mak (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs yuta morita (Zen) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs kouji hamada (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Rayland Luiz Duarte (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Zen	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.46
R3	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Po-Chuan Lin

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Melvin Chew (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs HSU WEI-CHUNG (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs 彥勳吳 (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Chu Heng Eng (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alex Lo

dropped • 2-3-1

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs John Wardan (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Nevin Aysar Madian (Unknown)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Draw vs KeDuo Yang (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Kazuaki Fukui (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

HSU WEI-CHUNG

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs 要菊田 (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs kouji hamada (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Po-Chuan Lin (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Rayland Luiz Duarte (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Sean Stanley (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Ran Sasaki (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.51
R6	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Shuto Ushiro

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Kean Onn Lim (Zen) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Peng Joon (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs John Wardan (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Vinh Luong (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Gary Lee (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Dominik Däther (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Zen	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.23
R2	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Yi Jun Loh

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Taichi Kambayashi (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Leon Lu (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Paweł Rozynek (Unknown)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs York kwok (Zen) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs 尚規石坂 (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Zen	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.11
R5	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

KeDuo Yang

dropped • 2-1-2

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs ryo inoue (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Connor Leverton (Unknown)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Kazuaki Fukui (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Draw vs Alex Lo (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs York kwok (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Zen	40%	Draw	✗	0.38	-
R4	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Angelito Jr Eusebio

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs syun suzuki (Zen) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs 尚規石坂 (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Deitrich Mohan (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs 島田諭史 (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Zen	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.28
R2	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Chen Wei Li

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Yusuke Asama (Unknown)

65:35

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs JohnsonCS Tsang (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.25
R3	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Sealed	Zen	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

島田諭史

dropped • 1-3-1

80%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Andy Pham (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Bryan Dayak (Unknown)

65:35

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Tan (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Draw vs Mark Phillips (Zen) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Angelito Jr Eusebio (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	Sealed	Zen	40%	Draw	✗	0.38	-
R5	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

彥勳吳

dropped • 1-3-1

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.1

Diff

65:35

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs ricky leung (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Mark Tan (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Cu (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Po-Chuan Lin (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs felipe gomes (Nuu) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.12
R2	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Draw	✓	0.65	-
R3	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	Sealed	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Nuu	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.