National Championship 2025 - Hungary - Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter (CC)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

András 'Kaptain' Kovács

5th • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bence Androkity (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Szabo Gyuszi (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tuba Csák Botond (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs István Balogh (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.33
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Bálint Tóth

dropped • 1-1-1

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Domonkos Kiss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Bence Vereszki (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Balint Herendi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Draw	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Dávid István Kovács

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bence Vereszki (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Domonkos Kiss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Szabo Gyuszi (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Roland Hajdu

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peszlen Zoltán (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs István Balogh (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Roland Szécsényi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.