Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

András 'Kaptain' Kovács

5th • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bence Androkity (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Szabo Gyuszi (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tuba Csák Botond (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs István Balogh (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.00
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Bálint Tóth

dropped • 1-1-1

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Domonkos Kiss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Bence Vereszki (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Balint Herendi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Draw	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Dávid István Kovács

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bence Vereszki (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Domonkos Kiss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Szabo Gyuszi (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Roland Hajdu

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peszlen Zoltán (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs István Balogh (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Roland Szécsényi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.