Calling: Prague 2025 - Arakni, Web of Deceit (Draft)

Arakni, Web of Deceit

16 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jascha Werth

15th • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

9.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Peter Markovič (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Kristian Čurla (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Sebastian Grøndal (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Finn Kleine (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

9.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.44
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.50
R11	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.79
R13	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	2.09

Daniel Correas

16th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

7.7

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Dler Sino (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs kuba tambor (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Marc Schuba (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Adam Collins (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

7.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.65
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.79
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.94
R14	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Sebastian Grøndal

23rd • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

6.5

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Michał Szubski (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Yorick Schulte (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Jascha Werth (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Jaap IJlst (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Alexander Lukavsky (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.35
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.50
R11	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.79
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Sean Knowelden

29th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

6.7

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Gregory Patellis (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Artur Wysocki (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Dennis Seitz (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.35
R10	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.60
R11	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.79
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.94
R14	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bartosz Dobrowolski

35th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

7.2

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Matthias Kempter (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Michal Michalowski (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Jascha Werth (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Adrian Słowiński (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

7.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.44
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.50
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	2.24

Lucas Macorano

36th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

7.1

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Gary White (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Adrian Słowiński (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Max Schmidt (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Jachym Flidr (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Adam Tuček (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

7.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.35
R10	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.76
R12	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.92
R13	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	2.09

Pablo Pintor

14th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.8

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Alexander Tsohohey (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Philipp Steinfort (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Sander Neeft (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Tomasz Żelazko (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.79
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.94
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	2.09

Suciu Andrei

34th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.4

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Finn Kleine (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Jack Mountford (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Sander Neeft (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.35
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	Draft	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.92
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	2.09

Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller

58th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.0

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs David Russell (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Daan Barten (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Kamil Kirstein (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs kuba tambor (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.35
R10	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.94
R14	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Daan Barten

73rd • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.2

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Kamil Kirstein (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Alexander Lukavsky (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Kristian Čurla (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Matthias Kempter (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Felix Ebert (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.35
R10	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.79
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	2.09

Valentino Odorjan

95th • 1-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Adam Collins (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Filipe Camacho (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Bino Nolting (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R14	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Philipp Schlegel

99th • 0-6-0

100%

Meta

-3.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Piotr Chudobinski (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Alexander Rosenberger (Cindra) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Jevgeni Dubei (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	Draft	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R14	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Aleix Córdoba

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Marcel Harz (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Dennis Seitz (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.62
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.79
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Dler Sino

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Daniel Correas (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Philipp Steinfort (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Andrew Rayner (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.80
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.79
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Alwart Nijveld

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Grégory Lefebvre (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Jevgeni Dubei (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	Draft	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.46	3.29

Arthur Trehet

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Fang) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	Draft	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.