Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Calling: Manila

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Aldrin Paul Arugay

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Neil Bautista (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jamal Armand (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Patrick Dogelio (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stephen Brian Lim (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs paolo mayo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kelvin Chen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Chu Heng Eng (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.62
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Loke Wai Jian

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs paolo mayo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lourenzo Paolo Posadas (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Angelito Jr Eusebio (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mark Alvin Mendoza (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Keefe Cabasa (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rayvie Anthony Pecajas (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.07
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.53
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Stephen Brian Lim

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Johann Louie Ong (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Raniel Valdellon (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aldrin Paul Arugay (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Lo (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hariz Hamdan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Pablo-III Avestruz

dropped • 1-2-1

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jewey Caballero (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jiggy de Asis (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Draw	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.