Kassai of the Golden Sand at National Championship 2026

Kassai of the Golden Sand

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Martin Rodriguez

5th • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alvaro Villalba (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rodrigo Pacheco (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jorge Yarza (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rodrigo Pacheco (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.68
R7	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Alvaro Villalba

20th • 1-1-1

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Martin Rodriguez (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Felipe Jorquera (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ame Pini (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 83:17

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Draw	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.26

Danny Mesias

21st • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Concha (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Felipe Loyola (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alejandro Pinedo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

RAFAEL VEGA ECHAVARRI

22nd • 0-0-3

67%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Martin Vinay (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Gabriel Núñez (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Felipe Jorquera (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Draw	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Draw	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Draw	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.