Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2026

Arakni, Marionette

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Franco Casoni

5th • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Juan Jose Vergara Castañeda (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nestor Mendoza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Martin Vinay (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ignacio Riego (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Alexis Pérez

12th • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Parra (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Juan Jose Vergara Castañeda (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Santiago Pino (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.57
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Santiago Pino

19th • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alejandro Pinedo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jorge Yarza (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexis Pérez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Diego Abarca

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pablo Valenzuela (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Parra (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Felipe Loyola (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Rodolfo Carrillo

27th • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ignacio Alvarado (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Carlos Valdenegro (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Núñez (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.