Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster at National Championship 2026 - Sweden
Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.1
Surp
4.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Sandén (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
10:90
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrej Erdelsky (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 8:92
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Max Harudd Segerstein (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54
Round 4: Win vs Gustav André (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 6:94, underdog victory
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (1.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 10% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 5% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.