Dorinthea Ironsong at World Championship: Barcelona

Dorinthea Ironsong

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yuto Suzuki

9th • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

6.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Deitrich Mohan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gary White (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs panagiotis ntemiris (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Alex Lo (Unknown)

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Kevin Zänker (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs simon diaz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

6.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.47
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R11	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.66
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.82
R14	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.89

Nathan Hills

21st • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Zänker (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 42:58

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ivan Taranto (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Unknown)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Dagan White (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Allen Lau (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.32
R3	CC	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.22
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R13	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.96

Francesco Lorenzi

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexi K (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Konstantinos Paltoglou (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Yau (Unknown)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Hiromitsu Okita

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paweł Leszuk (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Taine Markley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yegor Borshch (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gary White (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.